The Empire strikes back
Chapter III: It ain't over till the fat lady sings

01-30-2.000

 

The soft flanks

Of course, all this isn't yet written history but the dreams of an ambitious entrepreneur. He tried to bag the Internet before through MSN, by the way of hogging content and services, and it didn't work. You have to give the man credit for coming up with a more interesting plan this time, but it still has quite a few weak spots:

a) Linux and Mac OS X. Even if Win2000 is available now, WIndows DNA is a long term project... and this being Microsoft, "long term" takes a longer meaning ;-). The popularity of Linux and Mac OS (this one's based on the things discussed early this week) could well grow enough for the world's systems administrators to get rid of their fear of the unknown and to kick the mother of all their troubles out of the door by switching to a different OS. If this happens, I'll wager they won't be buying back into Microsoft no matter how much DNA Gates can cook up. And Gates' plan relies on a huge percentage of the Internet server market.

b) Distributed applications are not for everybody. Having to rely on an external network for your employee's working tools isn't very satisfying. You'd have to stop pirating the odd couple of licenses. And you'd keep paying Mr Gates for ever, month after month after month. Hmmm. And that's allowing for the neccesary bandwidth (still scarce) and for free time (only available in the US at the moment). Maybe the ghost app will not materialize after all. And there isn't much Gates can offer.

c) Star Office and its friends and well-wishers. Apple is going to distribute AppleWorks 6 free with Mac OS X. Star Office is free. Microsoft's competition is trying everything to break Microsoft's hold of the office suite market. If they can manage, the Master Plan is history.

d) The trial. All this revolves on there being a version of Windows in the same hands as Explorer and Office. If the judge breaks them up (allowing for a hundred years of appeals and whatnots) Gates will have to find himself another plan for world domination.
 

This could allow MS to survive the licensing of Windows... and maybe (with a different killer app) to recoup dominance if they tear Office from Windows but allow the Windows side to roam free on the Internet.

Anyhow, Windows DNA is quite fragile... but feasible. For a company that's on the verge of being carved up it shows a remarkable level of ambition and ingenuity.

 

 
Chapter I: The nature of the beast - What Gates is working on
Chapter II: Gates' second monopoly - What he's aiming at
Chapter III: It ain't over till the fat lady sings - The not-so-bad news

 

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